Where do we go from here?

The 'futurologists' tell us that we can make better business decisions by studying consumer trends and reacting in advance.

But it is not always that easy - the futurology industry famously failed to predict the rise of the internet, and the mobile phone sector had no idea text messaging would become the de rigueur pastime for a generation of people who found a new use for their thumbs.

So why do we do it? Because it is fun, because everyone likes to have an opinion and - in the case of the insurance fraud sector - because things have changed to such a degree over the last ten years that looking forward a decade or so is a genuinely interesting prospect.

Keogh's specialist fraud unit did not even exist in the mid-1990s - today it employs over 130 people and handles thousands of suspect claims a year.

Clearly, patterns emerge when you are looking at such a volume of potentially fraudulent activity. When we decided to take a vox pop of some senior industry figures, rather than just asking our own team, we also went to some of the other leading insurance fraud experts.

The result is an interesting commentary on key issues collated in a report we have called Keoghs Fraud Futures, launched at Post's recent Fraud Conference.

It paints an interesting picture of pride in the progress the industry has made in terms of tackling insurance fraud and a sense of frustration that this still has not taken us further in terms of anti-fraud awareness among the general public and a greater financial commitment to tackling it at the very highest level.

The impact of the web

The Insurance Fraud Bureau receives praise for its achievements in a relatively short space of time, however, it is the internet and the way it has affected the insurance industry that is largely nominated as the biggest influence on fraud over the past 10 years and the single thing most likely to have an impact in the future.

As a conduit for criminals, the internet is unsurpassed. It has revolutionised the industry, yet at the same time making it faceless and easier to defraud.

But while making fraudulent claims may be easier in the internet age, so too should investigating them. Data is a key aspect of the investigation of fraud and all of our opinion formers believe the industry is moving in the right direction in terms of sharing data.

There is even a belief that there is more data sharing between the public and private sector and even banks, which were traditionally hard to secure information from as part of any investigation. But new players with key information such as internet service providers and mobile phone providers need to step up and begin to share data in the future.

Whether the next 10 years see massive advances in areas such as cognitive interviewing and psychological profiling is another topic we touch on in Fraud Futures.

As a lawyer I need to deal in facts. However, there is no doubt that use of cognitive interviewing can help illicit those - often in a more streamlined manner than traditional interviewing techniques. The experts we approached felt that this was another area where technology was going to prove itself and that the psychology of fraud would see increased research and focus over the coming years.

Unusually for the establishment of such a body, our interviews unveiled genuine anticipation surrounding the creation of the National Fraud Strategic Authority and National Fraud Reporting Centre.

With the right remit and a clear focus, both are expected to be invaluable in helping us to quantify the true cost of fraud and the harm it does to the economy in the UK. Current 'guesstimates' are based on figures far too fragmented to offer the accurate picture we need to ensure that companies continue to invest in fraud prevention and investigation.

It is widely accepted that fraud is massively under reported, but even when it is recorded, it is not consistent. Our Fraud Futures experts agreed that having a single centre for reporting, and an authority focused on planning how to tackle fraud more effectively, would create far clearer opportunities to document and publicise the extent of the problem we are facing.

Making an example

Publicity was another major issue discussed by our experts. The right kind of prosecutions can generate the right kind of anti-fraud public relations, but high on several experts' 'wish list' was a public awareness drive to rival high profile campaigns such as anti-drink driving.

Other issues that cost the UK as much as insurance fraud is estimated to are tackled in this high profile way, from public health issues such as heart disease to benefit fraud.

The general feeling among the Fraud Futures panel was that once we have an industry PR campaign that helps the cost and consequences of insurance fraud to hit home, we can begin to take the next step with all the great work done over the past 10 years.

Will it happen? Ask me for a definitive answer in 2017.

A downloadable version of Keogh's Fraud Futures is available from www.keoghs.co.uk