A SCOR draw

This month's Rethink survey hit the market as the SCOR-Converium takeover battle moved into its fourth week, and a certain amount of routine calm began to descend after the daring opening frontal assault from the French.

Attritional trench warfare became the order of the day between the two smaller incumbents of traditional Old Europe - but what did you make of it all? When asked if SCOR would succeed in its bid, a significant majority of you (57%) thought that it would - tough luck then, Converium!

Of the majority, the comment, "Nobody else wants to buy Converium!" summed up the general mood, along with the feeling that if SCOR genuinely wanted Converium, it was likely to get what it wants in the end.

But the nay sayers' comments were more detailed. For example, one reader said: "SCOR has too much on its plate with the Revios acquisition. The attempt to acquire Converium is driven by a blind desire to be big, with no assessment of whether Converium is a sensible fit. Eventually, SCOR will realise this and back off. If they decide to go through with the Converium acquisition in spite of this, then you should start short-selling SCOR. They don't have the talent to integrate both Revios and Converium effectively, and there will be too many skeletons in the closet that will deplete financial resources."

Ouch! A guillotine is on its way to you, sir!

Others pointed to Converium's recent return to the A-rated fold as a reason why the Swiss player didn't need a Gallic pairing, while some believed that although SCOR might fail, Converium would eventually succumb to someone's advances.

When we asked, "Which company (if any) is most likely to make a counter-offer for Converium?", the finger of acquisitive suspicion swung hard to the west and pointed straight at Bermuda, with Paris Re and Axis being singled out for individual attention.

And then things got a little more curious - the question, "What does the SCOR-Converium bid tell us about the state of the reinsurance marketplace?" extracted all sorts of venomous, latent anti-SCOR feeling: "I think the SCOR bid might have more to do with Mr Kessler's aim than the state of the reinsurance market" and "SCOR don't understand the reinsurance market" were two bitchy comments, only to be topped by: "(Mr) Kessler needs to mix up his cards well - otherwise, the rating agencies will discover that the new SCOR (including Revios) is a castle built on quicksand."

Others blamed the easy availability of cheap capital. Oh dear.

Then, proof that in the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) game, one plus one rarely equals two came in answer to the question, "How would a combined SCOR-Converium affect the way you place your business?" - "Less business with the combined entity than with both", and the comment, "There are clashes and the combined shares will not be renewed" summed up the feeling somewhat.

However, some buyers did think it might be positive, which was reflected in the comment, "I prefer to deal with a strong company, even if the cost of reinsurance will be slightly higher."

All quiet on the western front?

Moving on from the boggy SCOR-Converium western front, a recent very positive asbestos-reserves study from Standard & Poor's (S&P) inspired the question: "Do you believe that the US asbestos liability problem is finally under control?"

Wily old hands that you are, almost seven out of 10 of you kicked this idea out of play: "The criminal energy of the plaintiff attorney mind knows no bounds, just as the wishful thinking of many chief executive/chief financial officers in an increasingly competitive market knows no bounds. To quote Yogi Berra: 'It ain't over 'til it's over!'." This summed up the market mood.

The question, "Do you think there is a good chance that Florida will convince other US states of the need for a multi-state hurricane-catastrophe fund?" split you right down the middle, but many of you thought Florida would have a tough time of it, because the 'Sunshine State' so obviously has the most to gain financially from any sort of pooling arrangement. Others said that the neighbouring coastal US states were much more likely to wait and see how the new Florida fund deals with an active hurricane season before making any kind of decision.

But, as ever, we have saved the best until last. The annual results season was drawing to a close with the word 'record results' appearing almost daily, so we wondered if this was a watershed moment for the market, and asked: "After a record year, do you think we have seen a peak in profitability for the industry this cycle?"

A whopping 87% of you thought we have. Look out below!