Why models are not the whole story

Ryan Ogaard: increasing return on capital is a business imperative.The 2004-2005 North Atlantic storm seasons have put a spotlight on the industry's use of catastrophe models and exposure management. What are the lessons to be learned, and how will they spark the next phase of development in our understanding of risk?Did the models do their job? Some will say that this simple question is really not so easy to answer. Natural catastrophe models are built partly on science, partly on historica