Treasury Select Committee raises the independence issue over the Bank of England

09 Nov 2011

The Treasury Select Committee has produced one of its most insightful reports this week on the accountability of the Bank of England. It puts the issue of accountability so firmly on the agenda that it actually goes much further and raises the question of whether a central bank should be independent of political control.

This has been the conventional wisdom among the major political parties for the last 15 years and when Gordon Brown moved quickly to cut the Bank free of political control in 1997 he was loudly applauded by the Liberal Democrats and quietly encouraged by the Tories. I have never supported the independence of the Bank of England and the Treasury Select Committee report's insightful analysis thoroughly vindicates that stance.

Of course the headlines this week have focused on the proposal that future governors should serve only a single eight year term - they are currently appointed for five years which can be renewed - and that the appointment should be subject to scrutiny and potential veto by the Treasury Select Committee. This has been sold by the committee's chairman Andrew Tyrie as a way of ensuring that, once appointed, the governor would be free from political interference: the rest of the report, however, sets out an aggressive agenda for future political engagement with the Bank.

Mr Tyrie summed it up well when the report was published on Monday: "Scrutiny of the Bank should reflect the needs of 21st century democracy. That means clear lines of accountability and more information made available to Parliament. It should be crystal clear who is in charge at a time of financial crisis. On all of these issues the government's draft legislation would benefit from improvement". It is in time of crisis that the select committee sets out a case for the Bank submitting to direct political control and it is these recommendations that I expect to meet the fiercest opposition from the Bank after the proposed veto on the appointment of the governor.

The recommendations on page 54 of the report do not leave much doubt as to who the select committee thinks should be in charge when there is a crisis:

"We strongly recommend that the definition of what constitutes a "material risk" for the purposes of Clause 42 of the draft Bill be contained in the forthcoming legislation. This definition should also take account of the fact that major liquidity operations by the Bank require Treasury approval--the material risk of these too must require notification to the Treasury....

"We further recommend that the Draft Bill be amended so that this early warning triggers a discretionary power for the Chancellor to be able to direct the Bank if he or she so chooses. The Bank should be required to provide such an early warning to the Chancellor as soon as the FPC becomes aware of a possibility of a material risk to public funds...

"To ensure proper accountability to Parliament, the responsibility of the Chancellor for all decisions involving public funds or liabilities in a time of crisis should be stated in the draft Bill".

These recommendations should start the debate about independence and political control of the Bank of England, one that should have been had a long time ago but which, with people pitching tents in the City to protest about their lack of influence over the financial world, is very much a debate for our time.
 

Five reasons why Gordon Brown shouldn't be allowed anywhere near the IMF

20 May 2011

I have long been of the view that when economic historians review the last 20 years they will condemn Gordon Brown as one of the worst Chancellors (and Prime Ministers) we ever had. I struggle to see how any coherent case can be made for him to be considered as the new head of the International Monetary Fund in the wake of the departure of the disgraced Dominique Strauss-Kahn.

I'll offer five outstanding reasons why I think history will judge his handling of the economy so harshly.


  1. From the moment he took office he set about destroying our pensions system with new taxes. We are left with a legacy of a mamoth pensions funding crisis.
  2. He presided over an unsustainable consumer credit boom despite the constant warnings of economists.
  3. The system of regulation he put in place was bureaucratic, expensive but, ultimately, ineffectual and we are still clearing up the mess. Just look at the millions of PPI policies it allowed to be mis-sold. And don't even start on the mortgage market, the investment banks,the derivatives market...
  4. When the out-of-control banks hit a brick wall he threw public money at them but with no conditions attached, no public control and not a clue about what an exit strategy would look like.
  5. He is praised for his prompt response to the banking/credit crisis but actually he just laid the foundations for the next crisis by pushing billions into the economy through quantitive easing, again without any control. Now our money is, among other things, creating a boom in commodities speculation which is pushing up inflation so that ordinary people end up paying twice to bail out the banks. And still the banks are not lending to decent, well-run businesses.

That will do for starters. If the great early 20th century economist J M Keynes were alive I have little doubt that these would form the first five chapters of a searing condemnation of Gordon Brown's record entitled 'The Economic Consequences of Mr Brown'.

Liberal Democrat MPs have learnt that social media is a two-way street

11 May 2010

Image representing Facebook as depicted in Cru...

Image via CrunchBase

Whatever the outcome of the increasingly frenzied negotiations between the political parties at Westminster today, I think we have started to see how influential social media can be in modern political debate.

All through the election people were waiting for social media to exert a real influence and apart from the ridicule of the Tory press's smear campaign against Nick Clegg it never really happened. Many commentators have already rushed to the conclusion that social media was the dog that didn't bark. They were premature.

While the TV debates were always going to be the biggest novelty factor in the election campaign itself, although just how much influence they had is going to take some very thoughtful analysis, I think that social media is showing more of its potential in the aftermath of the election.

The Liberal Democrats focussed on Facebook as their main social media platform during the campaign and every MP and candidate with a serious chance of winning was encouraged to set up Facebook pages and groups. The way this presence on Facebook was used has been rightly criticised by many commentators for being too much about 'pushing' information to followers but over the weekend the tables were turned.

As it became clear that Nick Clegg was serious about negotiating with the Tories - as he promised he would during the campaign as they had the most votes and the most seats - there was an outpouring of outrage from Liberal Democrat activists. In previous generations making these views known to their party leadership over a weekend in the immediate aftermath of an election would have been very hard but the social media presence, especially on Facebook, suddenly became a two-way street. Within hours of being set up, groups that opposed the talks with the Tories attracted tens of thousands of members and every Liberal Democrat MP from Nick Clegg downwards was bombarded with views from the party's all-important activist base (without funding from business or the unions the Liberal Democrats are more dependent on individual supporters than the other two parties) making it clear that the majority were instinctively opposed to a deal with the Tories.

What effect did this have? At the very least it must have strengthened the resolve of the one-third of the party's MPs who are identified with the party's radical left and will have worried many others who know that their small majorities are vulnerable to attack if the Labour vote rises and their grassroot workers desert them. This will have been a major factor in the debates Nick Clegg had with his Parliamentary colleagues yesterday and which resulted in the first Tory offer being rejected.

Of course, events suddenly accelerated after that with Gordon Brown resigning and the Conservatives surprisingly coming back with an offer of limited political and electoral reform. This morning a trawl through Facebook and Twitter suggests that Liberal Democrat supporters are now more divided over their preferences in terms of who they support and whether there should be any coalition at all. Nick Clegg and his staff will be monitoring that reaction very closely.

We've gone back to a two horse race. But they are wearing different colours

29 Apr 2010

David Cameron meets Police officers in Manchester

Image by conservativeparty via Flickr

The gentle recovery in the Tory vote since David Cameron's relatively poor performance in the first Leaders' Debate two weeks probably gained some important momentum tonight. We could yet see a Conservative government heading for Downing Street this time next week, albeit with a very small majority.

David Cameron made this his most assured contribution of the three debates and the instant polls seem to be confirming this. More assured it may have been, decisive it wasn't. There is still alot to play for over the next week, although I think we can finally start ruling out another term in office for Gordon Brown. He looked and sounded like a man with no future by the end.

In his final speech the Prime Minister did not offer a single positive reason why anyone should vote Labour. Instead, he used it to attack both Conservatives and Liberal Democrats and, by implication, the British public for daring to contemplate change. At least both David Cameron and Nick Clegg tried to offer people some reasons for supporting them, although both their closing speeches were longer on rhetoric than substance.

So, where does this leave us after the three debates? Somewhere very different from where we started, that's where.

Just over two weeks ago this election was a fight between a stuttering Conservative Party with a decent poll lead and a surprisingly resilient Labour Party with the Liberal Democrats out in the third place where they have been for two (if not three) generations. It was, for most people, a two-horse race.
 
It is probably still a two-horse race, just with a dramatic change in the identity of one of the horses. First Nick Clegg came up on the rails, then he held off a challenge from Brown and now he has left him trailing back in the third place Clegg himself occupied just 15 short days ago. It is a fight between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats for the largest share of the popular vote now. Cameron acknowledged that to-night by reserving his most ferocious attacks for Nick Clegg over immigration and the Euro. He knows that it is now the Liberal Democrats who are the main threat and who can prevent a Conservative victory. Gordon Brown seemed stuck in a past era, fighting the battles of yesterday and not adjusting well to the changed reality.

Clegg did well under pressure, getting none of the help he received two weeks ago from Gordon Brown who most definitely wasn't going to agree with Nick over anything. There were times when Clegg looked abit flustered and he occasionally struggled to move the debate on but, equally, Cameron didn't shine consistently through the 90 minutes.

The key question now is: have Labour got a comeback strategy? Is there anything they can do this weekend to rescue their rapidly crumbling campaign. If they haven't then we may see their vote drop to the low 20s which is much more likely to benefit the Liberal Democrats than the Tories.

The Tories will, however, be buoyed up by their leader's performance to-night and do have the advantage of having already built up a little momentum in their favour over the last week. That sort of momentum can be crucial at this stage in an election campaign. It may just be enough.
 

Second Leaders' Debate will give all three some satisfaction

22 Apr 2010

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown captured d...

Image via Wikipedia

I am going for the instant reaction again, rather than wait until the morning to see which way the wind is blowing. So here goes.

The second leaders' debate was much closer than the first and for that reason I imagine all three parties will be taking some satisfaction from the performance of their leaders. I wouldn't be surprised if the polls end up making it a score draw. If they do, that means that the big loser, once again, is David Cameron. If he and the Conservatives cannot pull away and consistently register on or around 40% they are not going to get the overall majority that has seemed a sure fire certainty for the last three years. I thought Cameron was appealing strongly to the core Tory vote on the big issues that came up like immigration and Europe but doing very little to reach out to the middle ground he needs if he is going to win. I wouldn't have thought that he has to worry about the core vote in this election. Surely, his job is to reach out well beyond that and he showed little sign of doing so in tonight's debate.

He gave one slightly bizarre answer when 84 year old Grace wanted to know what the parties would do for pensioners on the basic pension when he hold her that she would have to wait until 2016 at the earliest for any improvements. He did, however, rattle Gordon Brown on the pensions issue by attacking him for some false claims about Tory policies he alleged were appearing in Labour leaflets.

To Gordon Brown then. He did better than last week and, again, probably exceeded expectations but it was a very uneven performance. There was none of the "I agree with Nick" statements of the previous week, in fact quite the opposite as he kept attacking him for not wanting to replace Trident and for the Liberal Democrats' immigration policies. On both these issues, Brown found himself very close to Cameron although he stopped short of uttering what would have been the fatal words "I agree with David". Brown sounded good on pensions but you have to remember that you are looking at the man who in a decade as Chancellor did untold damage to our pensions system. He was genuinely effective on areas such as gay rights and religious tolerance than could easily have been captured by Clegg if he had slipped up.

For Nick Clegg it was probably job done. He was very unlikely to run away with it as before but he performed very soundly under alot more pressure and scored some good points. He stuck to his guns on the potentially unpopular - for his party - issues of Europe and immigration and came out with the best line of the night when dismissing Brown's demand to deport illegal immigrants: "We are talking about 900,000 people and you don't even know where they live". At that point the audience couldn't help themselves and slipped out of their straightjackets and laughed.

All Clegg had to do this week was hold his own and not wilt under the pressure. Even when Adam Boulton tried to force the Daily Telegraph's smear campaign against him into the debate, Clegg confidently swatted it away. Just by keeping up with the others he has ensured that the election remains firmly a three horse race.

This was potentially the most difficult debate of the three for Clegg because the popular assumptions are that Europe is loathed, immigrants are barely tolerated and people demand strong defence, all issues that the Liberal Democrats differ with popular opinion on. Clegg may not have scored heavily on these issues but neither was he hurt over them.

I thought the most disappointing aspect of the evening was Sky's coverage. They kept an annoying and irrelevant ticker running all the way through, chose poor, ill-focussed questions, allowed Boulton to intervene with a question to just one candidate that hadn't been asked and then came up with an instant poll for the Sun that suggested - surprise, surprise - Cameron had won. I look forward to the professionalism of the BBC next week.

Was the Leaders' Debate an election game-changer?

15 Apr 2010

Nick Clegg addresses the Conference Rally in B...

Image via Wikipedia

As I write this the first wave of post-debate polls have just been published and they all give the Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg a huge margin of victory in the first of the three leaders' debates. Does that make to-night a game-changer?
There will be endless analysis, reaction, rebuttal and spin over the next few days. Some of it will cause people to re-assess what they have just seen but it is hard to believe that we haven't just witnessed a key moment in this campaign, maybe in a key moment in British politics. The debate has made the Liberal Democrats and their leader serious contenders. I believe it will finally dispell alot of the fear of a hung Parliament as people will say they could, at the very least, trust Nick Clegg to hold his own with the other two leaders. Indeed, most people will come away from the debate thinking that he could do much more than that should he find himself involved in the negotiations over who forms the next government.
So, Nick Clegg was clearly the big winner of what was round 1 of a three round contest. David Cameron was the big loser. Some polls had him a distant third, others had him ahead of Brown although that must still be seen as a disaster for him and the Conservatives as he went into this as the favourite. He fell a long way in just 90 minutes.
For Gordon Brown this was a similar outcome that experienced by Alistair Darling in the Chancellors' debate - he did better than expected and came across as a decent politician of substance. That will help him. What won't help him is that he too often sounded like he should have been in the Chancellors' debate, especially in his opening and closing statements.
Cameron's weak performance is all the more worrying for the Conservatives because the first two questions  - on immigration and crime - were on subjects that are usually very good for the Conservatives. He should have got off to a flyer but, instead, seemed to stall on the starting grid, never really recovering.
Of course, for next week's debate on foreign affairs the expectations on Clegg will be very high and he will be the one that will have most to lose. Europe will figure strongly and that, in theory at least, should be a strong issue for the Tories. But Clegg took Cameron on over immigration so expect him to do the same on Europe.
For Labour next week will be tricky. Do they carrying on appearing to agree with the Liberal Democrats whenever possible (perhaps looking towards the discussions they will have to have in a hung Parliament) or do they start to attack them? It didn't go as badly for them tonight as some feared so they may be reluctant to change tack. If one consequence of Clegg's personal triumph is a slide in Conservative support overall then Labour might settle for that, at least for another week.
This may have been a game-changer but there is still a long way - and two more debates - to go. Also, support for the Liberal Democrats and their predecessor parties is notoriously volatile so any sudden leaps in their support in the opinion polls over the next few days have to be treated fairly cautiously. That said, I know which party HQ I would rather be walking into tomorrow morning.
 
  

Will this be the Twitter election? UK political parties look for Obama lessons

18 Feb 2010

Just how important is social media going to be in the forthcoming General Election campaign? After the huge excitement generated by the Obama campaign's use of social media during his successful campaign in 2008 all three main parties in the UK have been gearing up to exploit these new channels - and all three have proved very keen to talk about what they are doing.
Just this week there has been a debate at the Frontline Club and a session at the Search Engine Strategies London conference. I attended the latter as SES is part of the Incisive Media stable.
Speaking at the SES session were Mark Hanson from the Labour Party, Rishi Saha from the Conservatives and Mark Pack from Mandate Communications, who until recently worked for the Liberal Democrats.
There was a remarkable degree of consensus among the three of them and with the Frontline Club debate the previous evening, best summed up as cautious in terms of the claims being made for the likely impact of social media. However, the parties are putting alot of resources into it. Labour have four people dedicated to digital campaigning and the Conservatives nine. The Lib Dems predictably have a more limited national resource and have put the emphasis on local campaigning instead.
They all agreed that the biggest impact of the Obama campaign has been to get them a seat at the top table. Whereas before Obama party bosses might have been tempted to treat social media as a sideshow, now it is a central ingredient in their communications strategies.
Rishi Saha was by far the most bullish, promoting David Cameron and George Osborne as being web savvy and comfortable with new media, taking a big swipe at Gordon Brown's much-derided YouTube video at the height of the expenses scandal, drawing a stoney look from Mark Hanson but no response. The WebCameron project was hailed by Saha as an example of the ease with which the Tory leadership has embraced new media in contrast to Blair and Brown and even Hanson found himself acknowledging its success. The key tools for Labour so far have been Twitter which they like because of its immediacy and directness and also the blogsphere where they have over 100 key Labour supporting bloggers donating advertising space on their blogs.
The Tories have been quick to promote policy initiatives and reach out to potential supporters using new media in contrast to Labour where the emphasis seems to have been in communicating with its existing supporters more effectively. In this respect their new media strategies are in line with their overall approaches to the forthcoming election and their respective priorities. For Labour it is about maintaining its current support and enthusing it about the prospect of another Labour government while the Tories have to attract huge numbers of new supporters if they are to have any chance of winning the election.
The Liberal Democrats have focussed on a local strategy, particularly using Facebook, where the chance to build relationships with smaller groups of local electors appeals to them.
One feature on which they all agreed was the huge contrast with the American experience where social media's main influence was in fundraising with 99% of the money raised online going on TV advertising. In the UK, social media so far has been more about persuasion.
Whatever impact social media has in the UK election is likely to to be overshadowed by the new US-style leadership debates - this was certainly the feeling at the Frontline club. These are the key novelty and will grab alot of media and public attention. Social media will play a supporting role in this as the key commentators use it to form instant opinions on how the contestants have performed which will, in turn, shape public perceptions.
Back at SES, Mark Pack also said that we should expect the unexpected. There will almost certainly be a key 'cock-up' moment at some time during the campaign that will be caught on video and which will become huge on the internet - all the parties will be hoping that it isn't their leaders who become top ranked hits on You Tube for the wrong reasons.

Welcome to the five (or is it three) month election campaign

04 Jan 2010

Today seems already to have been declared the official start of the General Election campaign with a barrage of announcements from all the major parties. I wonder how this will play out with the electorate?
Politics and politicians have never been held in lower esteem in this country and there is a grave danger that people will just disengage from the political process unless the campaign strikes a radically fresh tone. I am not sure that months of endless policy announcements and traditional campaigning meets that demanding requirement. 
The uncertainty over the election date lies at the heart of that problem. Having the date in the gift of the Prime Minister of the day is one of the worst aspects of 'old politics'. It has already become a game to guess the date as Labour (ab)uses this power in an attempt to wrong foot the opposition parties. I have always thought that we should have fixed term Parliaments that can only be dissolved in exceptional circumstances to put an end to this nonsense. I would be delighted if Gordon Brown turned around today and said he was going to fix the date now - late-March or early May - to end all the pointless speculation and double-guessing. It won't happen, of course, because Mr Brown is a creature born out of the current system.
Previous 1 3

About the Author

david-worsfoldDavid has been a financial journalist for 30 years and is currently Group Editorial Services Director at Incisive Media.

Browse posts by date

Cal_navigation_previousMay 2012Cal_navigation_next
MonTueWedThuFriSatSun
       
123456
       
789101213
       
141517181920
       
21222324252627
       
28293031

Site credentials:

Related sites:

Jobs:

Article types:

Categories:

Accreditations: